Column: Trump is a climate crisis all by himself. But it’s not game over

Eight years ago this week — the last time Donald Trump was elected president of the United States — I offered a grim prognosis of what his ascendance might mean for the climate crisis.
“Twenty-five years of slow progress through international negotiations will probably deteriorate, locking in global warming far greater than the supposed ‘safe’ level of 2 degrees Celsius,” I wrote at the time.
I’m not sure if my analysis was too bleak, or not nearly bleak enough.
On the one hand, I was wrong about progress deteriorating. Heat-trapping carbon pollution has fallen in the U.S. since Trump was first elected, driven in part by low-cost solar and wind farms replacing coal plants. Forty percent of the nation’s electricity now comes from non-carbon sources, including renewables, nuclear and hydropower.
On the other hand, the U.S. and other countries still aren’t ditching fossil fuels nearly fast enough to limit heating to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Limiting the increase to 1.5 degrees would be even better.
Instead, hundreds of top climate scientists expect an average temperature hike of at least 2.5 degrees, according to a recent survey. That would be catastrophic — think bigger and more destructive wildfires, heat waves, storms, floods and droughts, probably fueling crop failures, refugee flows and geopolitical upheaval.
Did electing Trump in 2016 lock in that future?
I have no clue. Maybe it was already inevitable. Maybe it has only now become inevitable.
But this I know for sure: Even with Trump returning to the White House, giving up won’t help.
That’s why I’ll keep reminding you that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees requires slashing emissions 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, according to scientists. Even though those kinds of titanic shifts are unlikely — carbon pollution continues to rise globally — the numbers serve as a powerful reminder to look beyond the current moment.
In the same way that American democracy was never going to be saved or destroyed by a single election (see my previous column), the climate crisis won’t be won or lost in a day, or even a decade.
Two degrees of heating would be a lot worse than 1.5 degrees, and 2.5 would be even worse. But I’d much rather have 2.5 than 3 degrees. Every ton of carbon we keep out of the atmosphere is death and suffering avoided.
So yes, Trump’s election hurts. Full stop. Nothing I can say will make it better.
But it doesn’t diminish the need to work for a better world — for a habitable planet, and for a vibrant democracy in which everyone is treated equally. That need is greater now than ever.
Fortunately, there are avenues for action — climate and otherwise. State and local politics, the courts, nonprofits, volunteering, voter turnout, pushing big corporations to get off the sidelines. The path toward justice is narrower and more fraught, with a soon-to-be-president who has pledged to act like a dictator and boil the planet.
But there’s still a path. The work still matters. A lot changed on Tuesday, but not everything.
So let’s get to the rest of the news. Here’s what’s happening around the West:
California voters approved Proposition 4, a $10-billion climate bond that will finance water recycling, clean energy and wildfire protection projects. Details here from my L.A. Times colleague Melody Petersen.
The environment was also on the ballot in other western states, and at the local level in California:
I’ve also been watching some U.S. Senate races in which environmental issues features prominently:
As usual, the fossil fuel industry is working hard to influence our politics — even in California:
It’s too early to know the specifics of how Trump’s presidency will affect climate and environmental policy at the federal and state levels. But we’ve got some pretty big clues. A few storylines worth following:
Somehow, I managed to read a few stories that weren’t about elections. Here’s what else is happening:
Nah, I think I’ve had enough. See you next week.
This is the latest edition of Boiling Point, a newsletter about climate change and the environment in the American West. Sign up here to get it in your inbox. Or open the newsletter in your web browser here.
For more climate and environment news, follow @Sammy_Roth on X.